BTG predicts a “challenging 3Q22” for the healthcare sector

Qualicorp (QUAL3), Hapvida (HAPV3)… BTG predicts a “challenging 3Q22” for the healthcare sector
Third quarter results are expected to be released in the coming weeks. Photo: Pixabay

In a report published this Wednesday (19), BTG Pactual (BPAC11) made projections for the performance of companies in the health sector in the third quarter of 2022. Estimates are not encouraging for the segment.

The bank maintained a neutral recommendation, for example, for Qualicorp (QUAL3)stating that the 3Q22 results shouldn’t bring too many surprises. “It should not be a catalytic quarter”, wrote the bank’s analysts, who point to the action at R$ 9 next year. Qualicorp’s share closed down 6.64% in the trading session this Wednesday (19), quoted at R$ 7.30.

In the document, BTG stressed that the increase in health plan prices should not boost results this quarter. For analysts, labor costs, high inflation and the resumption of elective procedures may continue to form a headwind for the sector as a whole.

“This earnings season should be dictated by the same challenges, which means that the average ticket will be even more prominent for operators and hospitals”, said sector experts Samuel Alves, Yan Cesquim, Pedro Lima and Marcel Zambello.

On the other hand, based on data from the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS), the bank points out that there was an increase in the number of customers, both in health and dental plans. This shows that the industry has recorded good organic growth in recent months.

“The healthcare sector added 233k members in the quarter (July-August) versus 220k in the first two months of 3Q21, while the dental insurance sector added 515k members in July-August (1.4 million year-to-date) ”.

BTG drops price target for Rede D’Or (RDOR3), Hapvida (HAPV3) and Sulamérica (FLRY3)

Apart from Fleury, the other companies in the health sector had their prices dropped, as shown below:

  • Rede D’Or (RDOR3), from R$46 to R$43: forecasts unremarkable results in the third quarter, with better seasonality (decent occupancy rates), but lower margins for the year and quarter. The stock ended the session trading at R$29.88.
  • Hapvida (HAPV3), from R$10.50 to R$10: the expansion of clients may be interesting, but the loss ratio should continue under pressure, due to increases in salaries and medical fees. The paper is quoted at R$ 7.36.
  • SulAmérica (SULA11), from R$34 to R$31: bets on a better quarter end, with a 17% increase in revenue. Merger with Rede Dor can dictate the performance of the stock, and no longer the company’s fundamentals. Quote this Thursday: R$ 22.
  • Fleury (FLRY3) at R$17 (quoted today at R$18.31): encouraging numbers are expected that should show solid growth for the company. The bank maintains a neutral position, but claims to have a positive bias in the company since the merger with Hermes Pardini.

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