Specialists debated the main themes of the economy that will be evaluated by politicians in the House and Senate
The new fiscal rule, which will be sent by the government to Congress by August of this year, should be the focus of attention in the financial market among the economic issues to be evaluated by Congress in 2023. This is because the rule should replace the spending ceiling, that gave predictability to the market. This is the opinion of Marcos de Vasconcellos, CEO Market Monitor.
On Tuesday (31), the date of the vote on the presidency of the Legislative Houses, Vasconcellos anticipated the main topics of interest to the financial market that depend on Congress and its formation, together with Victor Barboza, editor-in-chief of FDR, and with the mediation of the by journalist Diogo Pinheiro.
How was the presidency of the House and Senate
On Wednesday (1) senators and federal deputies elected in 2022 took office and elected the presidents of the Houses. Financial market agents were attentive to this election, since those elected can facilitate or hinder governance: they decide which topics will be covered or not.
In the Chamber, the current president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who had the support of the government, was re-elected. The main opposing candidate was Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), who had the support of Bolsonaristas.
In the Senate there was also re-election, with Arthur Lira (PP-AL), favorite in the dispute following in the presidency. Deputies Chico Alencar (PSOL-RJ) and Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO-RS) also competed.
Which agendas in the economy pass through the National Congress
Taxation of dividends. Approved by the House in 2021, the bill that establishes a 15% tax on dividends is still going to the Senate: “This makes investment less attractive, on the other hand it is a new tax that increases Government revenue, which has no easy recipe”, commented Marcos de Vasconcellos.
Petrobras pricing policy. There is a law project so that prices are not equated to the international market, which may increase market competitiveness, but also make the company less interesting for investors.
Minimum wage adjustment. Victor Barboza recalled that one of the promises of the Lula government was to invest in social matters, but it is a challenge to do so without exceeding the spending ceiling. The Social Security Reform was one of the attempts to solve the ceiling problem.
Another challenge will be to stipulate a new calculation for the minimum wage adjustment, which in recent years has often been made below inflation, according to Barboza: “This adjustment also impacts other benefits, such as the INSS, these are aspects that will be evaluated in Congress in the first half,” he said.
Readjustment of the IR table. Another issue that will greatly impact Brazilians, commented Victor Barboza, is a readjustment in the income tax table: “But this should be a big debate for the coming years, since the reform should not come this year”, he said.
STF also resumed work – see important points for the economy
Regarding the beginning of the year for the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Marcos Vasconcellos highlighted some cases of interest in the economy:
- • Change in the form of Carf’s decision: The National OAB filed a Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI), this Tuesday (January 31), against the Provisional Measure that reestablished the casting vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf).
- • Vasconcellos summarized the change made and the OAB request: “Until 2020, in the event of a tie, the president of CARF (casting vote) would resolve the issue. As of 2020, the method changed and, when in doubt, the taxpayer would win. President Lula resumed the old rule, with the entity’s president appointed by the government. This could be harmful to the taxpayer, which is why the OAB filed the ADI”.
- • Vasconcellos also points out that CARF’s decisions impact many companies, and very large companies, and that the issue of change creates a major problem for business predictability.
- • PIS/Cofins on import: An extraordinary appeal will decide on the PIS/Cofins on imports: “Brazil exports many commodities, but they also import a lot of material and machinery, so this Supreme Court decision is also relevant”, said Vasconcellos.
- • Taxation of the third of vacations: The agenda on the modulation of the holiday rosary, which impacts companies and workers, may return to the STF agenda.
+The best content in your email for free. Choose your favorite Terra Newsletter. Click here!